While there are way too many variables and much at stake, this paints a picture that we should all beliEVe in.
The map projection below, along with lots of deep-diving research, shows how U.S. EV sales could resemble sales akin to those in Norway in terms of percentages of new vehicle sales and their composition.
Keep in mind, this is a very aggressive look at the proliferation of “electrified” vehicles. Tesla currently dominates the BEV market in the U.S., selling 74% of all BEVs, so clearly, it is fitting to include its current sales model in the U.S. If the Silicon Valley automaker is successful in expanding its sales footprint, Tesla will sell more vehicles, though there is a great deal of resistance to it achieving such a mission.
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In addition, many legacy automotive companies are set to introduce dozens of models of BEVs and PHEVs in the next few years, along with the advent of new vehicles — a space heretofore left blank — i.e. the “electrified” pick-up trucks, not to mention more all-electric three-row SUVs, which should be in full production in 2025.
Of course, this is just my well-researched and time-consuming estimate, which is based on a number of critical factors. We’d love to know what you think. Can you forecast the future?
Let us know your opinions and forecasts in the comment section below.
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