“My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck.”
That is a quote from Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane in Moneyball, but it easily could have applied to Matt McCall, crew chief for Kurt Busch and the No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing team.
Kurt Busch is a future Hall of Famer. Matt McCall is an extremely undervalued engineer and strategist. Together, they are a perpetually consistent, but never overwhelming frontrunner.
So, let’s be clear: They lucked their way into winning the South Point 400 on Sunday at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
This was the quintessential modern NASCAR intermediate race, representative of the chaos it markets itself around these days, concluding with a 12th place car finding its way to victory lane.
Busch spent few laps inside the top-10 and scored zero stage points during the first two segments.
So, how in the world did the No. 1 team land a spot inside the Cup Series playoff semi-finals?
It was the caution on Lap 237 near the end of green flag pit stops that changed the entire complexion of the race.
Denny Hamlin had dominated to the tune of 121 laps led but lost what would have been the battle for the lead when Alex Bowman undercut him by pitting one lap sooner on Lap 232. As it turns out, the battle between Bowman and Hamlin would be more important several laps later when the caution came out with the No. 88 inches ahead of the No. 11.
It trapped Hamlin a lap down until the waive around — with a handful of cars not yet having come down pit road — giving Busch and Matt DiBenedetto the front row on the ensuing restart.
Busch has been called ‘Captain Fucking Restart’ over several points of his career and proved it on Lap 243.
He would have to prove it again when John Hunter Nemechek spun from fourth place and triggered a multi-car incident seven laps later. That caution, however, gave Hamlin a chance to take new right sides. Busch once again beat DiBenedetto on the restart and Hamlin drove his way to sixth before yet another caution set up NASCAR overtime.
WHAT A FINISH!
Kurt Busch wins in overtime at Las Vegas Motor Speedway! Credit One Lap To Go presented by @CreditOneBank. pic.twitter.com/kxzmQNWBJw
Busch once again nailed the restart and Hamlin just couldn’t get back to the front.
Credit to Busch for his restarts and mirror driving because that’s how races are won once you get track position on intermediate tracks.
The result can’t be overstated for Busch and Company. They entered this first race of the Round of 12 as the bottom seeded contender and a long shot to advance to the penultimate round. They spent nearly the entire race outside of the top-10.
With one blown Jimmie Johnson right rear and a series of perfectly executed restarts, Busch has five additional playoff points and a chance to turn them into an appearance at the Nov. 7 championship race at Phoenix Raceway.
EVERYTHING THAT CAME BEFORE
Much fanfare will be paid to the finish, which effectively became an invert for the final 30 laps, and the masses will surely deem a good race.
It certainly was an entertaining show at the end.
And yet, there continues to be problems with the NA18D high downforce, low horsepower competition package that NASCAR officials have failed to publicly acknowledge, or worse even, embraced everything it stands for.
This is NASCAR’s identity now for better and worse.
Once again, 90 percent of an intermediate race was a procedural affair with the leader essentially impassable at the front of the field.
The rest of the pack spread out seconds apart on a 95-degree afternoon, which would have made for thrilling action if it were held under the lower downforce configurations like the Xfinity Series race the day before.
Remember the 2018 Vegas playoff race?
It took an untimely caution to deny Denny Hamlin the win on Sunday, instead giving it to a team that couldn’t even crack the top-10 without it. With clean air and track position, Kurt Busch became Superman upon nailing the restarts.
With that said, Hamlin likely completes the comeback on fresher tires if the race was five laps longer. Give credit to the choose rule and the extra-wide Vegas track surface for giving drivers room to find clean air.
From that perspective, the finish was certainly thrilling but the end result just leaves so much to be desired from a sporting integrity standpoint, drivers running single file at 95 percent throttle just waiting for the series of crash-bang restarts to shake-up the final results.
I’d like to see a throttle graph, see how much these guys are lifting off the gas!!
As was the case at Kentucky and Texas earlier this season, the chaos has significant championship implications, too.
It will be interesting to see how the final standings shake up for this second round, especially after the equally combustible races at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. Even with the win, Busch is currently just ninth in the championship standings, evidence of the long road he faced to make the next round in the first place.
It’s possible that Busch could finish this round below eighth in points, with his victory eliminating someone who otherwise would have made it on his championship points.
That’s not to say it isn’t fair, because everyone is playing the game under the same rules, but the randomness often feels like something out of a reality show than a professional sport. It’s closer to Roller Jam than an authentic motorsport.
It’s falling on deaf ears and it’s probably not going to change.
PLAYOFF OUTLOOK
If you thought Las Vegas was a wild card, remember that the final two races in the second round take place at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
Buckle up.
As of right now, Kurt Busch has locked himself into the Round of 8. Only Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have enough points by virtue of their regular seasons to cruise through this round largely without worry no matter what happens.
For everyone else above the cut line one misfortune or crash over the next two weeks could unravel a season’s worth of work.
Chase Elliott got trapped behind Ryan Newman on the final restart and it cost him about 12 points. That was a significant blow — but one offset somewhat by scoring the second most stage points on Sunday.
Luckily for him, road course racing has become his biggest strength in recent years, and the Roval is looming.
Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola and Austin Dillon already face must-win scenarios over the next two races.
1. Kurt Busch (Advanced, Win)
2. Kevin Harvick +61
3. Denny Hamlin +58
4. Brad Keselowski +16
5. Martin Truex Jr. +15
6. Joey Logano +11
7. Chase Elliott +10
8. Alex Bowman +9
—
9. Kyle Busch -9
10. Clint Bowyer -20
11. Aric Almirola -27
12. Austin Dillon -32
Dillon scored 10 stage points on Sunday, but it was all for nothing due to a series of mechanical failures that relegated him to a 32nd place finish.
“I can’t steer it!”
Trouble for #NASCARPlayoffs driver Austin Dillon with about 50 laps remaining in the first race of the second round!
TV: NBCSN pic.twitter.com/Fq3aWq9uLI
To NASCAR’s credit on the matter of integrity, it was important that officials added playoff points when they introduced stages in advance of the 2016 season. Success in the regular season does matter once the playoffs begin, something that couldn’t be said in 2014-15.
Harvick and Hamlin earned the comfort they now experience, as does Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. to a lesser extent.
At the same time, there are opportunities to win your way into the next round, no matter what your previous resume shows — as Busch and the Ganassi No. 1 team proved this weekend.
This format is admittedly the best blend of a season long championship and chaos-inspiring playoff.
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