When it comes to the Daytona 500, your guess is as good as anyone else's.
Certainly, the bar couldn't be set any lower following a tedious rendition of Daytona Speedweeks that included single-file parades in the Busch Clash, the Duels and Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series opener. The Truck Series race played out in the polar opposite manner on Friday night, turning into a rock em, sock em slugfest where only nine drivers made it to the finish.
For Sunday's Great American Race, there has to be a really happy medium somewhere, right?
The 2018 Daytona 500 featured 24 lead changes, the requisite Big One and a really dramatic conclusion with Austin Dillon turning Aric Almirola into the backstretch wall on the final lap to seal his signature victory.
It was a fine race, something we haven't remotely seen anything similar to this past week.
At least during the four Cup and Xfinity Series races combined, drivers immediately sort out single-file and move right up against the wall, where they stay for the near-entirety of the race.
In the Clash, Jimmie Johnson attempted what amounted to a last lap pass for the win but turned leader Paul Menard sideways in front of the entire field, triggering a 16-car melee in the process. In the second Daytona Duel, Joey Logano was able to duck down to the bottom with teammate Ryan Blaney, getting a shove that propelled him to Victory Lane.
But that's it.
On Saturday, Justin Allgaier lagged back to get a shove from Brandon Jones in the hopes of overtaking Michael Annett and just couldn't close suck up in the slipsteam as we've become accustomed to watching over the years.
The field remained single-file.
Well this is the best way I could describe today and work in @nutri_chomps. Kept trying to make moves and pass people but it seemed like everyone just wanted to ride around the top. Can’t wait for Atlanta next weekend! pic.twitter.com/gvQqysxyee
"I really wish I had an answer for you," Allgaier said. "After practice, I thought we were going to be on the bottom… And then the race started, Jeffrey (Earnhardt) was the first to move up and we all just followed."
And then they remained there for 101 green flag laps.
"I don't know what caused it," he added. "We've sat here and watched the Cup stuff, and they're handling different, so they need to be up there … It's disappointing because we want to put on the best show that we can, and there is nothing to explain why we did what we did. I don't have a good answer."
Dale Earnhardt Jr., the winner of 17 points-paying or exhibition restrictor plate Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races, couldn't find an answer from his perch atop a JR Motorsports pit box either.
"I don't know what's going on with the high line becoming just so clearly dominant," Earnhardt said. "To listen to the drivers and to watch what happened today in the race, it doesn't seem like it's entirely by choice that they all ride up there.
"It's by necessity."
Is it though?
The debate amongst drivers right now is whether or not the cars need to be against the wall because they are better poised to defend against the side draft while up there, or if drivers are choosing to run up against the wall because there is no incentive to mix it up until the final laps.
Consider this tweet from Denny Hamlin:
The preferred line is the one with the most cars in it. You don’t run faster up against the wall. 10 cars in a line up top running say 46.50s, those same cars would run 46.00s if they all committed to running bottom. In the end it seems guys are just happy with a good finish.
Logano is on the 'neccesity' side of the argument.
"The side draft is more effective to the right side of a car," he said. "You're able to slow down a car more from being on the right side than you can the left side. A lot of it is due to the shark fins…
"Once it is in a driver's head that the bottom is not going to work, you have five guys that think that — they move to the wall as soon as they take the lead and it's going to be the fastest way around. It's the best way to defend the lead."
Logano said the only way the bottom will work is if six, seven or eight strong cars commit to it, something we have yet to see across Cup and Xfinity all week.
"Everyone is looking at it saying, 'Man, if I pull out of line, and it doesn't work, I'm going back to 20th, or in the 500 back to 35th.' If I'm seventh or eighth, I don't want to go back to 30th. You're not going to be willing to take that risk as much. That's what goes through all our minds."
Another popular theory for why Saturday was so awful was the new composite body that made its Xfinity Series superspeedway debut at Daytona.
The body has protective markings on it to prevent tampering. Essentially every Xfinity Series body is completely equal to each other. That has led some drivers to believe that the extreme parity prevented cars from being able to make up the difference in a slipsteam.
Others believe this is a byproduct of drivers simply learning how to best protect their track position in the half-decade since NASCAR banned tandem drafting through both rule changes and the addition of a rear-bumper extension on the race cars themselves.
Difference between last years xfinity speedway car and this year is the carbon body. It's not near as easy to manipulate. I guess people forgot this was a whole new body for speedways this year?
The stages will help tomorrow along with different depth in quality of cars. https://t.co/bD0Wodgbm5
So after all of that, and in simpler terms, no one has any idea what to expect on Sunday.
No one really knows why drivers are fully-committed to the outside line and largely unwilling to drop to the bottom and form up a party to chase down the leaders who remain right up against the wall. Will the incentive of playoff points shake of the the first third and halfway point of the race? How about the Harley J. Earl trophy.
It's kind of a big deal.
If drivers can't be convinced to give it everything they've got for the Clash, Duel and Xfinity Series race, certainly a shot at the Hall of Fame by virtue of the scoring a win in the biggest race of the year.
And if it's not, thank god there's a new package in the works with tapered spacers replacing restrictor plates at Talladega come May.
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