Tesla Model 3, S, X March 2019 U.S. Sales Estimates

Tesla Model 3 U.S. sales up even as Europe and China witness Model 3 boom.

The expected result of shifting to overseas is seen in our estimates, but don’t think for a second that demand for the Model 3 has fallen.

We believe the cheapest Model 3 will begin to steal would-be sales from vehicles like the Chevy Bolt, Nissan LEAF e-Plus, Hyundai Kona Electric and Kia Niro EV. But that’s in the longer outlook. The current and continued near-term focus is Europe and China.

If you’ve been following the sales reports from overseas, then you’re already well aware of the fact that the Model 3 has taken the European continent by storm and has left China short of car carriers.

Globally, we predict 70,000 to 75,000 total deliveries of S/X/3. We are confident about the North America/Europe combined numbers, but this figure might go even higher depending on China deliveries in March.

Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In U.S.

Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 10,000 to 12,000 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in March 2019. That’s hugely up compared to the 5,750 we estimated for February and 6,500 we estimated for January and it blows away the year-over-year figure from March 2018 (3,820 Model 3 estimated sales in U.S.).


Moving on to the Tesla Model S and Model X

For March, we estimate the following for U.S. sales of these two Teslas:

  • Tesla Model S – 2,725
  • Tesla Model X – 2,425

Neither of these figures is especially weak or strong for a March month. For example, in March 2018, Tesla sold 3,375 Model S and 2,825 Model X. Meanwhile, in February 2019, Tesla sold an estimated 800 Model S and 1,100 Model X, so there’s quite an uptick from last month, but not a dramatic year-over-year change.

Sales Boom Ahead?

What does the future hold for Tesla in regards to the introduction of the base Model 3? Numbers…BIG numbers. Stay tuned to see the sales boom in the coming months. But for now, the boom is largely overseas where the Model 3 sets record after record after record.

***This post will be udpated when Tesla provides its Q1 sales results

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